October 27, 2023

Dame's 2024 economic outlook

In this week’s episode, Kristen, Dame, and Pete discuss what Dame learned at a recent economic conference.

Episode Transcript

Peter Dunn: [00:00:00] 3 p. m. Eastern today. Tottenham faces off against Crystal Palace, Tottenham Hotspur and the English Premier League currently top of the table. This is not soccer talk here on the Pete the Planet show, but it is the focus of my Friday as I'm geared up in my Tottenham gear like any other weirdo. Welcoming at this time to the program, Damian Dunn and Kristen Ahlenius, who.

It's cool that we have different tastes, right? It is. You guys don't care at all.

Kristen Ahlenius: I can appreciate that it makes you so happy. And I can just leave it at that.

Peter Dunn: Well, I would say I appreciate that you've had a nice 1989 Taylor Swift version moment today. I'm glad that that makes you happy. Thank you.

Despite how I feel. It doesn't matter how [00:01:00] I feel about it. I'm happy for you. And Dame. I am happy for you, even though, what you may find enjoyable, I don't,

Damian Dunn: and that's the truth. You know what, you know what I find enjoyable? This, this would be for

Peter Dunn: Oh my gosh, I didn't know what was about to happen there.

What is that? Hold on, I'm gonna make it. By the way we are making a visual reference here.

Damian Dunn: Yeah, sorry sorry podcast listeners this is specifically for video. That is the new flashlight that the office bought me with my Amazon gift card for my birthday. So you are helping facilitate my little oh, I'm calling it an addiction, sorry.

It's got three different light sources, Pete. It's got a laser, what I probably won't shine into the the lens here. But, and it's also got... Why not? What

Peter Dunn: would that do? Could that kill a viewer? No, I don't think that would hurt. Oh my gosh, that was surprising. I didn't think it was

Damian Dunn: gonna happen. I can see it from about at least 150 and close to 200 yards away on something that I can paint with it.

It's got a UV black light, which doesn't work [00:02:00] very well on, on here. We're glad to have been a part

Peter Dunn: of

Damian Dunn: that. Yeah. And then a very, very bright light that I will. Not not shine in the light because we all know what happened last time. But thank you for, for helping subsidize my addiction.

Peter Dunn: Chris, what was the phrase we came up with before the show?

I appreciate that you

Damian Dunn: have different tastes. I appreciate that we have different

Peter Dunn: tastes. Dame, happy birthday this week. Thank you. A ripe age of something. Of which I turn next

Damian Dunn: month, so. Yeah, I was going to say it, but now I'm not going to say it because I don't want you to be embarrassed by your age.

Oh, I

Peter Dunn: don't care. I just, you know.

Damian Dunn: 32. 32

Peter Dunn: everybody. That's right. Alright, let's do a show here today. Kristen, what are we starting with?

Kristen Ahlenius: Let's start with the question from the Roth IRA

Peter Dunn: emailer.

I've been consuming so many podcasts recently.

Damian Dunn: Podcast references you better tell what your [00:03:00] favorites are so everybody else can go listen to them too.

Peter Dunn: Well, I will, it's sort of a long story. Alas, I make the call. Here's the thing. My sleep has been a little rocky again. So what happens is I'll wake up at four um, and inevitably I got to get back to sleep and hearing people talk makes me go to sleep. All right, so I'll put on a podcast, but sometimes if it's too interesting, I don't actually focus on falling asleep, I focus on podcast and then I end up, and then once you're up past like five, you might as well just go to the office at that point.

No. No, well, yeah, well, you're...

Damian Dunn: She's still got four hours of sleep.

Peter Dunn: You work from home. It's, I mean, for me, it's just, you go. So anyway, I've been listening to a lot of podcasts. [00:04:00] I've been listening. I'm back on how I built this with Guy Raz. That's the terrible one at 4 a. m. by the way. Yeah. That's not one

Damian Dunn: you're going to fall back asleep to.

What, Kristen?

Kristen Ahlenius: Are you? Well, I was going to say, should you maybe not say what you're listening to because you just said that they can't be that interesting.

Peter Dunn: Oh, yeah, good point. Yeah. Oh, yeah. So I listened to the Pete the Planner show. No, actually, you've heard the podcast that I fall asleep to. Usually it's designed to help you go to sleep.

It's called sleep with me, which without the context sounds a little creepy. It's can I play a little of it for you? I don't think we're going to stop you. So this is what I usually go to sleep to. So I go get in bed, put in some earbuds. I don't wake my betrothed. And I listened to this and this is what I fall asleep to every night.

Mrs. Planner thinks I'm a serial killer. Well, and I played this for two of our colleagues at work last [00:05:00] week. Benjamin, whose real name is John. So what, you know, he's like, Oh, Ben, it's like, your name's John. Right. And then Molly who actual her name's Mary. So I don't know. I, I work with these imposters and I played this for them last week and here we go.

So here we go.

Damian Dunn: Friends beyond binary, ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, welcome. Welcome. Welcome to sleep with me.

Peter Dunn: The podcast that puts you to sleep. The podcast. It's here.

Damian Dunn: I'm so, I'm really so glad you're here. If you're new, if you're a regular listener, holy cow, it's good to see you again. And if you turn this off, if Jeremy's on, you got to turn this off.

If he's flying a plane, we're in trouble. This is not real. I'm sure about you,

Peter Dunn: dude. It is the greatest podcast ever. And so he tells these meandering stories and he gets himself off track. The first time you hear it, like. Many of you just experienced, [00:06:00] you freak out and it is not a good good moment for you.

He sounds like Bill Clinton. Really? I've never thought that. Yeah. Alas. Anyway. But then you get used to it and you love it. Pilot Jeremy, hello, Pilot Jeremy. It's good to, good to have you back on. Hopefully you're not flying a plane right now. Because we want everyone to be safe. And, oh, just landed in Seattle.

That's good. Intentionally? Yeah. Look at you, Dane. Think about jokes. Do you ever fly? Can we ask Pilot Jeremy? Dane, you shined that green laser at my eyes a few minutes ago in the show. And I was like, oh, it's not going to hurt me. And then you shined it. And I was like. He gads. Jeremy, do people still shoot laser green lasers in the sky at your plane?

Because I was flying a couple years ago and you could see someone trying to like blind the pilot with green laser light. That's a thing. Is it not, Jeremy? [00:07:00] I should probably Clear

Damian Dunn: your throat. We'll, we'll wait for Jeremy to respond.

Peter Dunn: Oh Lord. And Damien, you know what I'm talking about? Like those green lights, that's a thing.

Like in soccer matches, they'll like put them on people's eyes. So they,

Damian Dunn: I would guess it's a little bit more prevalent around airports since the. Lasers would be strong enough to reach that or for private airplanes that are a little bit lower. Oh,

Peter Dunn: they hurt and make us go blind for a while. Yes, they do.

We try and have them arrested. So here's the question I wonder, I would assume you'd, so do you just have like your coordinates and and then you're like, Hey, we're flying over Duluth and we believe there's a, a woman in Duluth trying to blind a copilot. Like, how do you, how do you pinpoint in? Do you like drop a, like a chemical marker over their home?

So the police know, like, how does

Damian Dunn: they dump the lavatories? So they're just like,

Peter Dunn: yes, that's exactly right. Like, how do you know? Do you like drop a pin on your [00:08:00] iPhone and then send it to an inspector? And then they go out there and then do some inspecting.

Damian Dunn: That's exactly what happens. Yeah, I'm sure he'll confirm that's exactly.

Peter Dunn: Coffee's hitting just at the right time today. Excellent. Oh Lord. Let's get going. As he, as he figures, oh, okay. Happens around the airports all the time. Just give them a ballpark directions. You can make you can use night vision to find them. Take

Damian Dunn: a left. What? Take a left in the cloud that looks like a whale.

Peter Dunn: He said they dropped the chemtrails on them. I knew it. I knew that. Kristen, you didn't know this? I didn't. I thought it was

Kristen Ahlenius: like... No, I don't know what night vision is. I didn't know that people actually did that with lasers. I thought that was... Like, and I didn't think that it actually did anything, even if they did.

Damian Dunn: Well, go stare at a laser for a little while and let me know how it works. Oh,

Peter Dunn: they, Jeremy says [00:09:00] they don't have the night vision. I was like, what do

Damian Dunn: you have like a flying around with nods? You know

Peter Dunn: what? I actually know how this works. I've read an article on this. What happens is there is an emergency possum.

Who's nocturnal in the cockpit, or pardon me, the flight deck, and when they get shined with the laser, they, they, it's called the impossible possum. That's what, that's what a lot of people call it in the biz. And they open the compartment, the possum comes out like that. And then they just point the possum in the direction of the laser.

And then that's, it's nocturnal and it has the night vision. That is true.

Damian Dunn: Did you see his follow up comment? People shoot at us too.

Peter Dunn: Oh, I didn't know that. Really?

Damian Dunn: I think we need to have Jeremy on as a guest for one segment of the show in the future and let him tell us pilot stories.

Kristen Ahlenius: We'll do like one of those anonymous segment things where you like disguise his voice and like don't show his face.

Peter Dunn: Yeah. Someone had a comment here. Aaron, One of we have [00:10:00] many errands that listen to the show here. Good morning, everyone. I need to get something from last week's show off my chest. Awesome. And by the way, it's based on something I, I, I said, you all know Aaron. And by the way, I always appreciate moments like this.

Pete said something to the effect of someone making minimum wage has no business buying a house. Okay, so I'm going to pause here for a second and not be Aaron. In 2023, I stand by that, by the way which could so then he says which could be true, but I think it's really important to note that it wasn't a point worth making until they got to 2023.

If it was always true. Wouldn't have come up right away. That's an it. Okay. So he's saying Aaron. Thank you, by the way, Kristen He's saying in 1967 and 1995 when we looked at those other economics that it wasn't necessarily True then. Mm hmm that someone had no business buying a

Kristen Ahlenius: house. Yeah, I think that's what he's saying Is that to justify the [00:11:00] argument that it might not be as hard to live?

We had to we only said that in 2023 As far as like the minimum wage aspect, because minimum wage wasn't, I didn't, I don't have the spreadsheet pulled up, but it didn't seem like it was super out of reach to buy a home and minimum wage in 67 or 95. I bet that's very

Damian Dunn: geographic. I bet there have been parts of the country that has been impossible to buy a house on minimum wage for a long

Peter Dunn: time.

Jason said he just sent an email to us. Man, you guys. AaRon, Jason says, I just sent an email with some comments about last week's episode. Did you send it to your manager or did you send it to us? I'm going to send this to my boss. Who's paid the planner? Why was everything compared to minimum wage?

Almost no one pays minimum wage now. We did Median 2,

Kristen Ahlenius: we did Median

Peter Dunn: 2. Yeah, I know. Thanks for listening everyone. That was a fun episode. You know, I will say, yeah, there were a couple of things we probably could have added there, so appreciate it. Man, can we not have, [00:12:00] we have to have an entire Pilot Jeremy episode.

Damian Dunn: I will tell you if you plan on having a 40 minute conversation with Jeremy, it's going to last an hour and a half, just, just letting you know, very enjoyable. Don't get me wrong. Very enjoyable.

Peter Dunn: Okay. Oh, that, well, Dave, you could have been like, you know, let me tell you about this

Damian Dunn: guy. I was, he popped up and I was like, I just, I have to talk to him.

I haven't talked to him forever. I need to, yeah. Jeremy, we need to talk, gosh, make it happen.

Peter Dunn: I was watching the U. S. Women's National Soccer team play last night against Columbia and they played terrible for what it's worth. And Mrs. Planner and I are sitting there and like we've, we've gone down this horrible rabbit hole of soccer in our lives.

Like Mrs. Planner sitting on the couch. They show a picture of this ref who is in Sandy, Utah. The head ref in Sandy, Utah, officiating between U. S. women's team [00:13:00] and Columbia, and Mrs. Planner goes, Oh, I know that ref. And I was like, wow, we have really, our lives have changed. And my point being, of wanting to hang out with Jeremy or having a beer with Rick Swink, there is a player on the U.

S. women's national team named Lindsey Horan. And it is not nearly as creepy as it probably could sound. She's one of those people like Rick Swink. I just want to have a beer with. I just want to have a beer with Lindsay Horan and Rick Swink and Jeremy, the pilot, and it will be the greatest round table.

Well, maybe with Jeremiah, but I feel like he's gonna, you know, be upset that I'm the first to leave, you know, anyway, let's do a show. I really have a meeting. Oh,

Damian Dunn: you don't. If you, well, you're going to be late. I got bad news.

Kristen Ahlenius: Yeah. Not off to a roaring start to get you there on time.

Peter Dunn: There's a new PeteThePlanner.

com that's coming soon. What? Why? Yeah, we don't really put a lot of resources into Pete the Planner stuff because that's not really what we do. However, we're just going to give a little bit of a facelift. You're familiar, Dame. [00:14:00]

Damian Dunn: Yes, yeah. Can't you tell? That's what else I got done with my 25 Amazon gift card.


Peter Dunn: who is less likely to have plastic surgery, you or me?

Damian Dunn: Are we taking into account the likelihood of having accidents and needing

Peter Dunn: plastic surgery? Oh, that's actually great. How about cosmetic surgery? Okay.

Damian Dunn: Yeah. You, you're more of a media

Peter Dunn: face. Oh, jeez. I have a skin tag on my bald head now. That's the age I am.

Get some nail clippers. Take care of it. Oh, no! What?

Are you serious?

Kristen Ahlenius: Tell me.

Peter Dunn: What? Dave, you can't be serious.

Damian Dunn: I said what I

Peter Dunn: said. Kristen, I don't know what to say. You don't have opinions on skin tags at a ripe age of whatever you are.

Kristen Ahlenius: at my age,

Peter Dunn: no. tHere's nothing more. I'm getting hot. I'm gonna have to shed the, shed the jacket here, by the way, I'm fully Tottenham Doubt today.[00:15:00]

Big game. Big game. So I've got my Spurs jersey on my wife says I look like a loser in a sports jersey as a 45 year old man. And she's right. Oh, Hey, Jameson, did it just snip it off? What is wrong with it? We got to move on to the show. What's the first step? Oh, quickly. Kristen. What's the first? The

Damian Dunn: long Roth IRA.


Peter Dunn: crew. Okay. Is it from Tom? Yes. Okay. Okay. I'm going to throw Three, two, one this week on the Pete, the planner show. We answer your money questions. Here's how the show works. You email us askpeteatpetetheplanner. com that's askpeteatpetetheplanner. com. And we will answer your question. Joining me as most times, Kristen Alenius, Damian Dunn.

Hello. Good day, dear Pete and crew. This is an email. I'm not just like going into a different state of being here, dear Pete and crew. I'm currently still adding [00:16:00] to an emergency fund, and I think it'd be a good idea to put some of that into Roth IRA accounts. If I'm not able to contribute the maximum to those each year, I hate to miss the opportunity to fund those accounts while I hold cash in a savings account for an emergency that hopefully will never.

The money could sit in a cash position in the Roth IRAs. As I more slowly build cash in a traditional savings account. This seems smart time out time out day. I'm a three word sentence. This seems smart. Question mark. Yeah, question mark. That's a tough one. Or please tell me why I'm foolish. Any emergencies that have happened in my short life so far have been covered by immediately reducing spending and or temporarily increasing income.

I work a regular 9 5 job and my wife runs a small business with the potential to generate about 200k in a week if needed, though not [00:17:00] every or most weeks. I figure if we're to see a major emergency that we could withdraw principal from the Roth IRAs. And if there is never such an emergency that I've maximized my retirement contributions, you guys feel like I should read the additional details.

Are they not necessary? Some of them are. My wife and I are 35, have 5 young children. Yeah. Annual income 135, 000, 135, 000. Potential annual small business profit 20, 000. Checking account balance fluctuates from near zero to 10, 000 throughout the year. All purchases are on a credit card and are paid off at the end of each month, term life insurance for the wife and I.

I'Ll go there. So what do we think? I love the show. Thanks, Tom. Kristen, you want to begin with us here?

Kristen Ahlenius: Yeah, I suppose I could begin. I, I don't think that it's a bad idea, right? So the question really is, this seems smart? Question mark. [00:18:00] I don't think it's a bad idea, but sometimes I take pause when I feel in my gut that we are over complicating a simple problem.

And if the problem is that they feel that they need more in emergency savings, sometimes it's not always necessary to find the greatest way to do that. We just save for an emergency. So my, my gut is giving me pause, but I feel like I could be swayed.

Damian Dunn: I've got questions, and you know what this means. This usually means we get to speculate and we've learned that we are pretty good at speculating.


Peter Dunn: Here we go.

Damian Dunn: What do you think the target emergency fund level is for Tom and his

Peter Dunn: family? Great question. All right. 135, 000 w two income. So we'll call that about 10, 000 bucks a month of, of, of gross income, but then you net it [00:19:00] down. I don't know. I'm saying 6, 800 a month.

Damian Dunn: I mean, we look at the saving cause there are some savings details, maxing out HSA, maxing out 401k making five 29 contributions.

What they're living off of is significantly less. Then the hundred and thirty five that they are grossing on their W two and I said that they've always handled emergencies in the past by reducing income or just making a little bit more money through the side hustle. So

Peter Dunn: I got a 10, 000 bucks is the emergency fund.


Damian Dunn: I mean, I think that would be reasonable, but I'm wondering if they're if he's trying to overshoot what might be a reasonable emergency fund to.

Kristen Ahlenius: I think it's probably higher than that, you guys. I bet it's 15 for three months and they're trying to push to 30 for

Peter Dunn: six. I [00:20:00] will say in the Guinness is not a negative comment because I'm about to use the word engineer, which sometimes can be negative. By the way, if you're one of the engineers that work for us here, your money line, don't take that.

That's not negative. This seems like an, an engineered financial life, does it not very much, which I appreciate. It reminds me of a friend of mine's financial life where I wonder if at I wonder how the stress and anxiety will build over time when running a financial life like this, because it seems, it seems like at some point untenable.

Dame, you agree or disagree?

Damian Dunn: I don't know. I, some people are just built like this. I, they, they love the details. They get into this stuff on day in day out and they. They love it. And if this is the type of financial life that makes sense and gives a person a sense of peace and [00:21:00] calm and the illusion of control, then then so be it.

That's fine.

Peter Dunn: I mean, if we had to score what we're seeing here out of 10, you're giving it pretty close to a nine. Yeah. Nine and a half, right? Yeah,

Damian Dunn: absolutely. I, and I, they're doing a lot of stuff right here. And when you're trying to get into what do I do with my emergency fund, Pete, you and I, and Kristen, I'm going to lump you into this too.

Oh, we've, we've, well, you feel free to pull the rip cord and eject at any moment, Kristen. Keep your accounts in the lane that they're supposed to be in retirement accounts for retirement. We don't try and use those for multiple things. I understand the Roth has some advantages to it, but. I think the comment was made that, you know, we just leave it in cash.

If we made the contributions to the Roth, what's the point? I would just leave it. If it's going to be built for emergency funds, then leave it in the savings account, a high yield savings account and have access to it immediately. Because if you [00:22:00] do need it in the case that you can't cover it with reducing spending or increasing income in the short term, the last thing you want is to have to go through another hurdle of taking a distribution from a Roth IRA account, just leave it.

Accessible for emergencies.

Peter Dunn: Can I play Diablo's Advocate for a moment here? Sure. You're gonna

Damian Dunn: be wrong,

Peter Dunn: but go ahead So my HSA I view it ideally as a long term investment option Mm hmm, if I don't need it for for short term health care Mm hmm. So isn't isn't that somewhat similar to using the Roth IRA as an emergency fund?

Kristen Ahlenius: I would disagree with that because your HSA is structured to allow you to take money out of it with ease. I have a debit card that's linked to my HSA. I don't, we don't, you don't have that link with your Roth IRA because it's not really what the account's designed to

Peter Dunn: do. But isn't it multi? I mean, again, I don't love this idea that Thomas come [00:23:00] up.

I don't love it, but I also don't have a systemic issue with like, I don't like fundamentally disagree with it.

Damian Dunn: You're also getting an immediate tax benefit by contributing to the HSA as well. Whereas you're not with the Roth, you're playing the longterm with the Roth. And if you're going to leave it in the Roth, you're only giving yourself more speed bumps in the, in the process that you're going to use it.

As it's intended to be used,

Peter Dunn: do you think that if he did what he's trying to do and put the money in the Roth with the hope that he would never need it for an emergency, then he would either a try to cash flow emergencies that he shouldn't or be not spend money on things that he should and then make the situation worse.

Do you think that's possible?

Kristen Ahlenius: I think it's possible. And in the Facebook comments, someone asked, If you put the money in the Roth IRA, are you going to actually use it? Or would you lean on a credit card or something else if you had an emergency? And I think that's the same, like a similar question that you're asking.

And that's where we get into like personal behavior. [00:24:00] You, the emailer, what in your heart of hearts, what would you be inclined to do?

Peter Dunn: What is the heart of hearts? I don't

Damian Dunn: know. A little section of the upper ventricle that

Peter Dunn: filled with cholesterol. All right, let's do this. Let's let's everyone call everyone.

Calm down. Calm down. Let's take a break. Still come up in the show. Another email. And then Dame went to an economic. Outlook conference or very nerdy, very and has some thoughts on what was shared at that event. He's going to talk about like, what is ahead for the economy, United States Dame, just the academic of the show this week, all that's next on the Pete, the planner show.

I'm Pete the planner. I'm still cringing from your medical advice earlier.

Damian Dunn: It was not medical advice, nor was it investment advice. There's nothing in this show that is professional in any way, shape or form.

Peter Dunn: I was, it was awful. I can't think about anything else now. I could

Kristen Ahlenius: retell my story if that would make it better.

Peter Dunn: [00:25:00] Let's go to the next segment because I'm really going to miss a meeting. And now I'm going to take the ire of a guy who calls himself Ben, but his name is John, very clearly. It's on his birth certificate.

Damian Dunn: Right. And his W 2.

Peter Dunn: Have you seen his W 2?

Damian Dunn: I'm hoping it matches up to what he files with the 10 40.


Peter Dunn: gonna screen share it right now. . Okay. What's this? Which, what's, what's this one?

Damian Dunn: Are we doing my summary?

Kristen Ahlenius: I thought he, I thought he said last. Oh,

Damian Dunn: did he? I thought he just teased it as this. I thought he just teased it. Is this segment I thought,

Peter Dunn: let's just do it. Let's just do it. We'll do it live.

We'll do it live. 3, 2, 1. Back on the Pete the Planner Show. Sometimes during the break, executive decisions are made. And the decision is this. Dame, it is time to give your economic outlook, based on someone else's economic outlook to us right now. You went, go. What do we got?


Damian Dunn: I [00:26:00] spent yesterday morning, check local listings for yesterday, by the way.

In a conference listening to a very well known economist slash banker slash really, really smart guy give us his interpretation and projections on where he thinks the economy is going. I've listened to this man for a number of years and he's usually pretty, pretty accurate with what's going on.

So first and foremost, let me. Let me just give some good news, at

Peter Dunn: least what I can give his name, like, should we give him credit for this? No, no, no, no. Go ahead. Continue.

Damian Dunn: Expected inflation average for the next 10 years. Guessing game. Pete, you actually, you've already both seen it, but if you hadn't seen it what, what

Peter Dunn: would you have guessed?

I would have guessed over 3%. I would have guessed like 35 to 37. Honestly, Kristen, what would you have guessed? I would have

Kristen Ahlenius: been in the same ballpark higher than what we've seen in the past, but lower or longer term, but lower [00:27:00] than what we've seen in the shorter term. So somewhere four ish,

Peter Dunn: maybe what do you say?

Damian Dunn: 2. 3%. I

Peter Dunn: don't like 10 years. I don't. And that was at the beginning of the notes you sent us. And I was like, I, I'm going to discredit everything else I read.

Damian Dunn: Well, I, I can tell you that he does this for a living. He scours data looks at the projections from different organizations and governmental entities.

And 2. 3 is the. number that is being come up

Peter Dunn: with. Does it worth? Is it worth? Does he know? Does he understand that I say dumb things for a living? Does he, does he, has he taken that into consideration?

Damian Dunn: I, I'm sure he meets with plenty of people who say dumb things and he takes all of that into consideration.

Okay, fair enough. All right. So we've also heard a lot about a soft landing for the economy. It's been thrown away. The terms have been thrown on for what? At least a year, Pete. Yeah, yeah. At least. So there are four potential Outcomes for the situation right now, soft landing, soft landing, by the [00:28:00] way, would be when inflation is under control, which he feels very strongly that we are either experiencing right now or will be in the very near future and no recession.

Fair enough. Inflation under control. No recession. I'm just definition. That's a soft landing definition. Is it worth

Peter Dunn: noting that the GDP numbers just came out this week and they were Stupendous.

Damian Dunn: Yeah. Because he actually went through a couple of different data sources and the data projected just over 5 percent and they came back at 4.

So the, the data sources that came out 24 to 48 hours ahead of time were really close to the actual numbers. So Okay. So we

Peter Dunn: are currently not in a recession according to GDP growth right now. Yeah.

Damian Dunn: Okay. So, so soft landing is in play right now. Hard landing will be inflation under control, but recession happens anyway.

Peter Dunn: That could still happen, right? Because it would be this quarter.

Damian Dunn: Yeah, because if inflation comes under control, [00:29:00] but interest rates continue to ramp up and everything just shuts off and spending is done, we could get that recession pretty darn quick. So hard landing is still possible. No landing. Continued inflation, economy grows, Fed continues to tighten, and we'll come to a painful halt in the future.

Peter Dunn: Okay, say that one again, because I got lost in amongst it. Sorry.

Damian Dunn: No landing. This is a term that's just come up in the last I don't know, six months or so, according to I'll say Dr. Ed continued inflation. Economy grows, Fed continues to tighten interest rates, we'll come to a painful halt in the future.

Peter Dunn: Okay, so that's, that is theoretically what we've been going through the last several months.

Kristen Ahlenius: Thank you. Yes. Okay, that's like been the last year plus

Damian Dunn: of our lives. Yeah, it would just keeps accelerating going forward until it becomes unsustainable and then it comes to a crashing halt. Okay, so, so far we got

Peter Dunn: soft landing, hard landing, no landing.

No landing,

Damian Dunn: correct. What is left? Stagflation. Yeah.[00:30:00] Continued inflation, recession happens anyway, unemployment increases. This is in my opinion, probably the worst of all potential outcomes. Go ahead, Kristen.

Kristen Ahlenius: Can I ask what the difference is then between no landing and stagflation? They sound very similar to me.

Damian Dunn: I think one is timing and duration would be the other side of it, but nothing was thrown around for either of the two metrics

Peter Dunn: on that side. But uh, may I? Bald man in the back, please. With the skin tack on his Dame, I forgot my question. Dame with no landing, there's still economic growth, right? Yes.

Yes. In stagflation, there are layoffs there. There's unemployment. So that would say it is more choked growth because if you're trying to find. Margin, and the way you do it is by laying off people. Is that actual growth? That's a dumb comment, but is there a distinction point between the two there?

Damian Dunn: Well, Stagflation would expect that to happen before the [00:31:00] recession happens at that point.

So yeah, that's part of a recession but Hard landing is yeah, I can see what you're

Peter Dunn: Yeah, kind of. They're a little different. And so I don't mind going on the record, especially when I know I'm going to be wrong, which is the nature of our stock picks every year here on the blue butter. I have gone on the record numerous times saying I believe we're about to face what I'm calling a micro recession because I'm an idiot.

I don't know what that means. I think based on the student loan repayment, I think we're going to have sort of a depressed holiday sales season. I think if we're going to have a recession, it's going to be this quarter. It's going to be like the, the beginning of it. So I, I buy, I buy hard landing.

Damian Dunn: So, so coming out of a quarter where we had amazing growth, you think it's going to go completely the other direction?

Yeah, into the holiday season. Yeah,

Kristen Ahlenius: no, I think it's post holiday season. [00:32:00] People

Damian Dunn: are going to charge, charge, charge. They are not going to let this impact. There's no way

Kristen Ahlenius: way. No, I think people are going to pretend it's fine. Just kind of like milk, like figure out a way to make it through quarter four. And then in Q1, I think.

I think you're right. I just think it's going to be a quarter later. So

Peter Dunn: if, if what you all are saying is true, which I, who am I to disagree with you guys? You're generally right. It's going to be a much harder landing because then that sort of like an accelerated recession, because people are going to be so in debt that they're going to be forced to pull back, not at my choice, but forced to pull back spending and consumer activity.

Second quarter,

Damian Dunn: I would like to say forced. I, I, I wouldn't like to say forced. Oh yeah, sorry. Because I, I think spending behavior is becoming really ingrained and I think it's gonna take a while for it to get truncated. So I think this may drag out a little bit longer than, than you're thinking, [00:33:00] Pete.

People will hang on as long as they possibly can.

Peter Dunn: All right. So what else was said?

Damian Dunn: Some conflicting economic signals of GDP. Obviously was was spectacular as it was released. And then the FOMC, a federal open market committee, released their projections. They think for the next three years, we're going to have a positive GDP with no negative years for the next three years and the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model.

What? Yeah. It takes in, which I'm doing a little bit of research on it. It's pretty cool. It takes into account a whole bunch of different factors. It projects a positive GDP for the next three years as well. So a yield curve still inverted yield curve right now predicts that there's between a 40 and 50 percent likelihood of recession though.

So we're getting, still getting conflicting indicators from.

Peter Dunn: Amateur economist and show favorite Jeremiah notes. You guys see [00:34:00] that Fidelity reported how 401k hardship withdrawals have increased. There are indicators people won't let lifestyle go yet. It's happening to savings to keep spending. Yeah. So that um, you know, here's something.

Did he talk about the election at all? Or the election season on.

Damian Dunn: No, I was really hoping he would and that, and if we get into a protracted war over in the European theater but nothing was brought up in that area.

Peter Dunn: And it's with that, that we take a break. Coming up after the break, another email question.

Which one? I don't know. I didn't listen to the pre show meeting. All that's next on the Pete the Planner Show. I'm Pete the Planner. And of course I'm not joking. Which one are we doing? You wanted to do the Tyree

Damian Dunn: question. Was it D that we were going to talk about?

Peter Dunn: Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I chose it and I don't remember.

Kristen Ahlenius: You did pick it. Also, if I just disappear, they are digging up the concrete in front of my house, and like my whole house is vibrating, so [00:35:00] I'm like a little concerned. I don't know.

Peter Dunn: What would be the disappear? Like

Kristen Ahlenius: a Well, if they like, if I know they're putting in new internet lines on the street, so no, no, no, no, they're putting in new internet lines and they're digging for those new internet lines.

So I'm like, I don't feel great about that because they hit one last week or the week before. So hopefully we we're still

Peter Dunn: here. You know what? While these hardworking American workers are trying to improve your community. You're sitting here making fun of your ability to communicate to outer space with others.

I think it's you on your high horse. You're privileged jump in, Dame. Oh, you're doing great. I have an unrealistic expectation. This is a very millennial. Come

Damian Dunn: on, go, go, go touch some grass and get some dirt under your fingernails.

Peter Dunn: Yes, there it is. Yeah. But you've chipped a nail your entire life. [00:36:00] Nope.

Damian Dunn: Thought for sure. She was going to show you one specific nail that she wanted to make sure. Yeah.

Peter Dunn: I will note my Nespresso has gotten sort of like lukewarm.

Damian Dunn: Now yeah, and it is not good. Not good.

Peter Dunn: Yeah, let's keep going so that I don't get yelled at too much by a man named no one knows he's a liar.

Okay I'll read the email 321 back on the Pete. The planner show going into the mail bag. There's a song we used to have probably 10 years ago on the show and I'd go into the mail bag. But really? Yeah, it would be like, it's the mailbag, and I was like, you know, I did it myself, and then I'd play it, and I don't really

Damian Dunn: want to do that anymore.

Can't we pay somebody on Fiverr to recreate it?

Peter Dunn: The last time I paid someone on Fiverr to do something for the show, you guys openly mocked me. I

Damian Dunn: did not openly mock you. The Pete the

Peter Dunn: Planner Show Fiverr lady that with the

Damian Dunn: ukulele? I know! I

Peter Dunn: didn't mock you. Kristen, you hated it.

Kristen Ahlenius: I don't recall [00:37:00] mocking you,

Peter Dunn: though.

I have on good authority amongst very personal conversations with your family and friends. Okay. That you mocked me.

Kristen Ahlenius: Yep.

Peter Dunn: Then it must be true. And I have the hidden video. Dear Pete, I need some advice. I'm 57, recently divorced and just got laid off. I have a niche. Time out. Granted. Okay. Niche. Is that the, is that the pronunciation we're going with that?

Yes, I have a niche professional career and struggling to find employment, part age, part lack of openings, even willing to take a step back. Execs won't hire me for fear. I could take their jobs. Ugh. I have 300, 000 in savings and 1. 2 million in retirement that includes 401ks and IRAs. I'm currently renting because I sold my house as it was getting expensive to upkeep and I was going to require [00:38:00] some big maintenance investments soon.

Can I afford to retire? Thanks D. First off D I'm really sorry. I think we're all collectively. Sorry. You're going through this right now. That's hard. I mean it sounds like you you've spent decades building a a niche career and in a world that you provide a lot of value and to find yourself on the other side of that is, is, is not fun.

So I'm really sorry that's going on. And by the way, when you said, can I afford to retire Dame? I'm going to go ahead and assume Dean means like right now. Right. I think that's fair. Kristen, what jumps out to you?

Kristen Ahlenius: Age jumps out to me. Retirement before 57. Just naturally kind of makes me take a step back.

I know there's a lot of cash savings there, but as we all know, like especially medical situation, if there's no medical insurance involved and we're trying to bridge a gap to 65 without being able to draw on those qualified [00:39:00] accounts, it, that gives me pause.

Peter Dunn: Yeah, there's a couple things, you're right, there's a couple things going on here, Dame, it's hard for anyone to not look at this and go 1.

5 million dollars of assets, no obligations of note. Correct. Right? But then the other side of that is, Dame, you know exactly how that 300, 000 came to be, don't you? Maybe. She sold her house. Yeah. So you got to think at least half of that, probably two thirds of that to three quarters of it came from the proceeds of selling that house post divorce.

And so that is to say while the 1. 2 million in retirement is, is, is great. It's the, Potential lack of propensity to stack dollars and savings that scares me the most about retiring right now, short of what Kristen said, which is [00:40:00] the mechanics of trying to get qualified money out prior to 59 and a half.

Damian Dunn: And even if she can go that route, let's say she, she lives off the savings until she's 59 and a half that 1. 2, assuming it stays 1. 2 between now and then it's only going to generate about 48 grand of income that still needs to have taxes paid on it.

Peter Dunn: Yeah. So net that out. I mean, you're talking 2, 800 a month of.

Take home pay, maybe?

Damian Dunn: Yeah, I, the one thing though, as you were reading it, that I thought of sounds like she's very professional very good at her her career, and if niched, then there might actually be a demand, but if there's fear from some of the people who would otherwise consider hiring her, I wonder if there's an option to be a contract employee.

And consult in in some of these things. So it's a defined engagement. She still makes some income [00:41:00] and she's able to to bridge a little bit, maybe learn to live off of a smaller income in the meantime. So she's preparing. for retirement. Maybe you might call it a mock retirement period before before she actually goes through with it.

Peter Dunn: Yeah. Kristen many of the listeners in the live stream big rig swing amongst them really pointed out. It's like, it's hard to know without cost of living. But again, based on, there's some, there's some tells here and then I'm making some jumps at 57 to have one and a half million. I say this next sort of hypothesis respectfully, potentially some of that is part of a divorce settlement part of that.

You never know how the assets were sort of figured pre divorce and then how they sorted out post divorce. I think that's the biggest factor in this is how much does this person's Potential income in this niche profession, you know, [00:42:00] what, what, I guess, just what is the potential for that? Yeah, I

Kristen Ahlenius: agree with that.

The mechanics of how how well D does or doesn't save, like you said, if as part of the divorce, maybe D wasn't the saver in that relationship. That definitely would be a concern to me. But when I, when I read an email like this and someone says that they have a niche career, they're struggling to find employment, they don't give an income number to me, that strikes me as a generational, like it's rude to say how much money I make kind of vibe.

It concerns me that maybe D is a very, very high income earner or has been in the past. And if that's the case, 1. 2 million looks totally different if you're a very high income earner.

Peter Dunn: That's, that's fascinating because there's almost, there's going to be this threshold of, you know, off the street to say someone has one and a half million dollars is one thing, but off the street to say someone has one and a half million dollars when they make a buck 50 a year.

Right. It's, it just pales in comparison. What's [00:43:00] the old number that to, to basically retire, you need somewhere between 25 to 33 times. Your income, what was the, yeah, I feel like 25 was the bottom threshold. So that is to say what's 1. 2 million divided by 25. I assume it's somewhere in the 40 something range.

I think in fact it, it, it, it probably is with 48, 000, yeah. So if her income is somewhere in the 48, 000 range in this niche profession, conceivable but if it's much more than that.

Damian Dunn: Yeah, but we're also talking about inflation for the next 30 years too. I mean, that's not going to be sustainable. There needs to be more assets there, honestly, to make this happen.

Peter Dunn: Here, here's where this gets interesting too, though, right? You don't [00:44:00] know whether she takes the, the spousal retirement based on her ex husband's. Oh man, that's

Damian Dunn: interesting. Plus if she can make another five years, that gives those assets five more years to hopefully grow. And she comes much closer to probably 2 million in assets between now and then, which may not seem like a.

Ton on, on paper going from one five to 200 to 2 million, but cutting out five years of window of need. And that's, if you take it at 62, man, if you can stretch that out to, to full retirement age,

Peter Dunn: much, much better. Yeah. D Kristen or Dame, you guys are actually, you, you know what you're talking about.

I don't, I just say things, but did the spousal. bEnefit change in the last few years on Social Security in terms of like ex spouse. Did that change or is it, has it stayed consistent? Stayed consistent. Okay. So, I, I guess D, D, D, take it, you also need to take in consideration, if for some reason your husband's income.

[00:45:00] Really was a lot. Ex husband's income was a lot higher than what yours was. Then that spousal, ex spouse retirement option may be part of your financial planning. Dame, am I completely crazy or is that arguably true?

Damian Dunn: No, it's arguably true. They would have had to have been married for at least 10 years.

For that to be a potential

Peter Dunn: option. All right, let's do this. D we are saying probably not, is that our conclusion? Everybody probably don't retire right now, but that doesn't mean you can't get a more modest income job in, in redefine what it is to have that lifestyle. And you started that by renting. As opposed to being a homeowner come up after the break.

Biggest waste of money of the week and the news right here on the Pete Planet Show. Nah, I'm Pete the planner. Pilot. Jeremy's gotta take off. You know, most times when people are like, Hey man, I gotta take off. See you later. No, he literally is taking off . They know, man, I gotta take off. Oh, what do you mean?

No, I'm gonna fly some PE humans through this. The air. Do you think he eats just Bishoff [00:46:00] cookies? Or he hates them at this point? He hates

Damian Dunn: them The latter. I hate them. I'll find out. But,

Peter Dunn: I'll ask, you know, let's say he goes to like his in laws for dinner and his mother in law's like, Oh, I found this recipe for a cheesecake and it's got a Bischoff cookie crust.

And he just like sleeves, he's like, I hate you all. He storms out and grabs his green lasers and start shooting them up at planes.

Damian Dunn: I shoot some of the cars going by to get back at people.

Peter Dunn: Yeah. Oh, this cross country skier here to try this laser. It's like all forms of transportation. It's like he's getting back at them.


Kristen Ahlenius: Hmm. You know what we failed to mention in the last

Peter Dunn: segment, the possum, whether the possum goes to have the cheesecake and it loves Bischoff cookies is right, right? It

Damian Dunn: would.

Peter Dunn: Oh, did you have, I

Kristen Ahlenius: actually thought of something, but it's actually good. I feel for someone who's 57, who was really hustling in their career niche professional [00:47:00] to think they're going to totally step back from work at the age of 57.

Someone like D is going to go stir crazy. Yeah. It sounds fun to retire, but then what do you

Peter Dunn: do? You know, I did figure out what her niche profession is. Possum Trainer. Possum. Trainer. Trainer. Yeah. She's a A in-flight. Possum trainer. Oh my. Kristen and Dame. This show streams live on LinkedIn. Yeah. Which means your career path forward.

is linked to this moment. There's a man in a Tottenham hot spurt jersey. Yeah. Talking about possum training for airplane. And you're part of this. This is, this is part of your career path in this moment. How's it going? I think there's, I think there's a

Damian Dunn: lawsuit there.

Kristen Ahlenius: I was gonna say, I think it means that we're stuck here forever cause like where else are we going to go now?

You know? It's like,

Peter Dunn: Oh, can you send, send me some some film of what you've done. And it's like, let's say it all has burned down except this [00:48:00] moment. You have to send it. They're like, I'm, I'm sorry. Can't do it. All right. Let's do the next

Damian Dunn: segment. I think the answer is I don't have anything to share. I'm sorry.


Peter Dunn: my gosh. Okay. Three, maybe two. One. This week's biggest waste of money of the week right here on the Pete the Planner show is

is the Volbach indestructible belt. Built with the single strongest fiber known to man, the Volbach indestructible belt can hold more than just pants. It's high strength Denima core is 15 times stronger than steel, giving it the ability to carry four tons or around 10 grizzly bears. A cobra buckle.

Featuring a patented locking mechanism that makes it impossible to release under tension and has already survived a supersonic free fall from space. [00:49:00] Each belt arrives in a custom anodized metal case with a 3d printed latch. Now, Dame, I myself have eaten at numerous buffets. I will take down Italian beef sandwiches, fries, and, and I feel that my pants.

Need more room. And I feel like an indestructible belt could actually kill you. If you're in that situation, it is not going to give it. It's not gonna have the natural stretch, the fiber needs of a Midwestern or like me, who is hungry upon landing from a flight. So Dame, I say to you, who needs an indestructible belt?

I want it destructible. And so therefore, any cost of this is a big waste of money. No,

Damian Dunn: well, the question is, is impossible to release under tension. If you put in a few too many things for Thanksgiving, you're not gonna be able to undo that. And then you can't cut it off because it's indestructible. You're stuck with those [00:50:00] pants on.

Until some very unpleasant things happen, let's

Peter Dunn: say, Kristen, that you're an airline pilot and you go to your in laws house and they, your, your mother in law makes a delicious cheesecake with a Bischoff crust and you're not a snooty pilot. So therefore you eat the, eat the cheesecake and your, your, your pants and your belt create an issue for you if it's indestructible.

Kristen Ahlenius: I suppose that is within the realm of possibility.

Peter Dunn: Kristen, how much do you think this costs?

Kristen Ahlenius: whAtever it is, is too much. It looks like a ratchet strap, per the Facebook comment. That's exactly what it looks like. And I think that it costs... 65.

Peter Dunn: Okay. All right, Dame. What do you believe the Volbeck indestructible belt to cost?

Damian Dunn: I will say 129.

Peter Dunn: Oh, 395

to have your legs fall off when you eat too much. Tater tots. Lovely. Dane, what's in the news [00:51:00] this week?

Damian Dunn: Everybody's favorite governmental organization, the IRS, is moving ahead with a plan to build its own free tax filing program known as DirectFile, announcing Tuesday that a pilot version will be available to some taxpayers in 13 states.

Next year, armed with an influx of new money approved by Democrats last year, the IRS is conducting a major overhaul of its operations despite continued threats from Republicans to cut future funding and even abolish the agency altogether. Not going to happen. Eventually. The IRS tax filing system could serve as an alternative to private tax preparation companies like H& R Block and Intuit's TurboTax.

But for now, the online pilot program will be very limited in scope. Only taxpayers in those 13 states with specific eligible tax situations will be able to participate. The IRS anticipates that at least several hundred thousand taxpayers will decide to participate in the pilot. Critics of DirectFile, including H& [00:52:00] R Block and Intuit, Argue that a government run system will likely provide a worse taxpayer experience than was what is currently available and that the federal tax collector should not also pay play the role.

Of tax preparer thoughts

Peter Dunn: Kristen, is there any topic that you feel like brings out the inner grumpy old man and dame Dare I say his inner possum quite like the irs and our inability to get the tax system, right?

Kristen Ahlenius: No, there is nothing and it shouldn't but on some level it kind of brings me a little

Peter Dunn: joy To watch him because I feel dame i'm gonna be honest.

I I can't believe you brought this up because How are you not about to explode?

Damian Dunn: I, I've, I've traveled east and learned the secrets of meditation and anger control.

Kristen Ahlenius: He's wearing that impossible belt. Yes.

Damian Dunn: It's keeping all the anger below.

Peter Dunn: No, I um, so [00:53:00] this is wild. I, I mean, this is such a dumb topic. No offense.

Because. No matter what we collectively agree, let's say that we really hash this out. The three of us who, by the way, arguably share some different views on this topic. Let's say we came to this very reasonable conclusion. It would be impossible to implement. Absolutely impossible. And somehow in, in.

Everyone's best interest it wouldn't happen. And I, I don't, I don't both don't know why I'm trying to fire up day. Why do you think this is no, I

Damian Dunn: don't, I mean, I've, I've looked at a number of different systems over the year and tried to find something that I could really get by, you know, fair tax, flat tax, vats whatever.

And the reality of the situation is it's all wasted effort and all wasted energy because it ain't gonna change. The income tax is here to stay in America, like it or not, and all we can do is fight over how much we're

Peter Dunn: gonna pay. Why is that though, Dan?[00:54:00]

Damian Dunn: Because the government spends more than they should and they need our money.

Peter Dunn: They spend

Kristen Ahlenius: more than they make, which is like a fundamental

Peter Dunn: problem. Let's move on. He's worked so well to calm himself, and then I tried to poke the bear. All right, what else is in

Damian Dunn: the news? U. S. Household wealth ballooned at a record pace during the pandemic as the government doled out unprecedented aid.

Americans hunkered down amid widespread lockdowns on stock and home values soared, according to the Federal Reserve Survey. From 2019 to 2022, the median net worth of U. S. families surged. I'm going to leave a pause there. For you to guess a percentage of how much they surged percentage

Peter Dunn: of how. Okay. So how much did the average

Damian Dunn: between 2019 and 2022?

How much did the average or sorry, the median net worth of us families [00:55:00] go up?

Peter Dunn: I'm about to feel out of touch, but I'm going to win 24%.

Kristen Ahlenius: I was going to take the over. I was going to say 30,

Damian Dunn: 37 percent to 192, 900 adjusted for inflation, the largest rise in the history of the fed survey of consumer finances, which is conducted every three years.

Median income while meanwhile grew at a relatively modest 3% And that was fairly stable. The Fed said in the report during the pandemic, many households received financial windfalls from the government In an effort to tide families over amid widespread business shutdowns and 22 million layoffs that included three rounds of stimulus checks enhanced unemployment benefits and a pause in student loan repayments from 2019 to 2022 the share of families owning stocks increased from 15 to 21 The largest on record.

Thanks robin hood median stock holdings fell To 15, 000 But that's because new stock [00:56:00] owners held smaller portfolios than long standing stockholders.

Peter Dunn: With that stimulus, weren't people just getting their tax money back?

It's their money, right? Yeah,

Damian Dunn: so it's, it's their money. Every penny of it.

Peter Dunn: I

Damian Dunn: had a really good time. It's, it's, it's somebody's money. Maybe not theirs.

Peter Dunn: What's in that cup you're drinking out of? Is there chamomile

Damian Dunn: tea in there? It's getting a little low, let's say. It's gonna need a refill before I move on with the rest of my day.

Peter Dunn: What else is in the news? Oh, you want me to do more? Yes!

Damian Dunn: Average cost of health insurance plan offered through an employer rose 7 percent this year to 23, 968 for family plans and 8, 400 in change for individuals according to a new survey from the Private Health Foundation, KFH. F the jump was the highest since [00:57:00] 2011 was driven by inflation as well as higher wages for health care workers and hospital system mergers, according to health policy experts.

Peter Dunn: Ours did not go up that much. No, it did not. All right. It was a fun show,

Damian Dunn: right? I'm glad I could entertain

Peter Dunn: you. Oh my gosh. Dame, go on a long walk, buddy. Okay.

Damian Dunn: See you

Peter Dunn: Oh, wait. alRight, Kristen, thank you very much for your contributions today. Yes, of course. Dame, thank you, my man. You're welcome. And let's hope that Tottenham Hotspur remains on top of the table going in to English premiere week eight or something like that.

Anyway, that's all we got. Sending good vibes because good vibes are all that's in the budget. I'm Pete the Planner. This is Pete the Planner Show.

That was fun. All right, I gotta go. I gotta go to my meeting. So that's all I got. I love you [00:58:00] all. And I mean that deeply. I mean, just intimately. I mean, not too much that I had to do paperwork, but you know what I mean? That was today. I gotta go. Stay getting money.